![]() ![]() These projections give a sense of how much learning students could lose, though we hope they will be overestimations of loss, given the online instruction and home schooling occurring. We refer to this scenario as the “COVID Slide” (represented by the dotted lines). Next, we assume an extended summer loss would occur during the period since schools closed. ![]() The solid lines represent average trajectories in a typical year with typical growth (estimated based on a prior year’s data) followed by normal patterns of learning loss over the summer (generally, student achievement/learning tends to decline during the summer, though this varies greatly by student). The two figures below show projected math and reading learning patterns from the beginning of the 2019-20 school year (before COVID-19 school closures) through the start of the 2020-21 school year. ![]() These scenarios were directly informed by out-of-school-time research. We compared typical growth for students who completed a standard-length school year to projections under multiple scenarios. These assessments enable such estimates because MAP Growth is administered multiple times per year, which means test scores are available in fall, winter, and spring such that changes in achievement during the year can be understood and anticipated. We used a national sample of over 5 million students in grades 3-8 who took MAP Growth assessments in 2017-2018. We relied heavily on past precedent when trying to understand how COVID-19 might impact achievement in the short and medium term. Existing evidence can provide a rough sense of how time out of school due to COVID-19 will affect achievement. ![]() This includes research on the effects of out-of-school time on learning due to absenteeism, weather-related school closures (e.g., Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans), and summer vacation. Yet there are parallels between the current situation and other reasons students miss school that can give us insight into how COVID-19 may affect achievement. In so many ways, the current situation is unprecedented for most people alive today. Students themselves are faced with isolation, anxiety about a deadly virus, and uncertainty about the future. Meanwhile, teachers are scrambling to adapt content for an online platform and parents are juggling work responsibilities (if not joblessness) with caring for and educating their own children. Current school closures have added to the time that most students already spend at home during the summer months without explicit face-to-face instruction from teachers. Ultimately, we wanted to know: What sort of learning losses could we expect from the shortened 2019-20 school year?Īnswering this question is complicated by the unique circumstances of COVID-19. Given the need to address these concerns, we decided to use prior test scores from millions of students and leverage research on summer learning patterns to make informed projections of what learning loss due to the pandemic might look like. There are also concerns that the gap between high- and low-achieving students will become larger. Many parents and educators thus share a common worry: When the pandemic subsides, kids will return to school with lower achievement. Virtually all K-12 students in the United States are currently missing face-to-face instruction due to COVID-19. ![]()
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